An analysis of area and production growth rate along with price forecasting of major pulses in Bangladesh

Abstract

Pulses are the most significant crops in the world, as well as in Bangladesh, for their commer-cial and nutritional importance. The study was carried out to determine the rate of expansion in area and production for several types of pulses such as Mosur, Mung, Mashkalai, Gram, and Khesari in Bangladesh, as well as to anticipate wholesale prices for those pulses. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Department of Agricultural Marketing were used in this study. Following a diagnostic check, such as R², Adjusted R², RMSE, AIC, BIC, MAE, and MAPPE, it was discovered that the Cubic growth model was the best for specified pulses. The data over the entire time revealed that total output in the area rose in the case of all pulses. Mosur and Mung had positive average production growth rates of 2.02 and 6.919 percent, respectively. Mashkalai, Gram, and Khesari experienced negative growth rates of -0.541, -8.894, and -0.854 percent, respectively. After computing the average percentage change for Area growth rate Mosur, Mung, and Mashkalai showed positive growth rates of 1.229, 4.631, and 1.152 percent, respectively. In contrast, Gram and Khesari both had negative average values of -7.719 and -1.987 percent. This study applied the ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,1) model for Mosur, ARIMA (0,1,2) model for Mung, ARIMA (2,1,2) model for Mashkalai, ARIMA (2,1,4) model for Gram, and ARIMA (0,1,0) model for Khesari since those models passed the diagnostic test. Forecasting findings revealed that Mosur, Gram, and Khesari wholesale prices would be marginally modified, while Mung and Mashkalai wholesale prices would be raised in 2025. Thus, analyzing the growth rates of area and output of key pulses may help farmers allocate their land more wisely and price forecasts will help farmers in identifying the best crops for their production, which will improve the output of these crops in Bangladesh.